Ahead of next week’s Flash Memory Summit, Micron this morning is announcing that their next-generation 232 layer NAND has begun shipping. The sixth generation of Micron’s 3D NAND technology, 232L is slated to offer both improved bandwidth and larger die sizes – most notably, introducing Micron’s first 1Tbit TLC NAND dies, which at this point are the densest in the industry. According to the company, the new NAND is already shipping to customers and in Crucial SSD products in limited volumes, with further volume ramping to take place later in the year.

Micron first announced their 232L NAND back in May during their Investor Day event, revealing that the NAND would be available this year, and that the company intended to ramp up production by the end of the year. And while that yield ramp is still ongoing, Micron’s Singapore fab is already capable of producing enough of the new NAND that Micron is comfortable in announcing it is shipping, albeit clearly in limited quantities.

From a technical perspective, Micron’s 232L NAND further builds upon the basic design elements Micron honed in that generation. So we’re once again looking at a string stacked design, with Micron using a pair of 116 layer decks, up from 88 layers in the previous generation. 116 layer decks, in turn, are notable as this is the first time Micron has been able to produce a single deck over 100 layers, a feat previously limited to Samsung. This in turn has allowed Micron to produce cutting-edge NAND with just two decks, something that may not be possible for much longer as companies push toward designs with over 300 total layers.

Micron’s NAND decks continue to be built with their charge-trap, CMOS under Array (CuA) architecture, which sees the bulk of the NAND’s logic placed under the NAND memory cells. Micron has long cited this as giving them an ongoing advantage in NAND density, and that’s once again on show for their 232L NAND. According to the company they’ve achieved a density of 14.6 Gbit/mm2, which is about 43% denser than their 176L NAND. And, according to Micron, anywhere between 35% to 100% denser than competing TLC products.

Micron 3D TLC NAND Flash Memory
 
232L
(B58R)
176L
(B47R)
Layers
232
176
Decks
2 (x116)
2 (x88)
Die Capacity
1 Tbit
512 Gbit
Die Size (mm2)
~70.1mm2
~49.8mm2
Density (Gbit/mm2)
14.6
10.3
I/O Speed
2.4 MT/s
(ONFi 5.0)
1.6 MT/s
(ONFI 4.2)
Program Throughput
?
?
Planes
6
4
CuA / PuC
Yes
Yes

The improved density has allowed Micron to finally produce their first 1Tbit TLC die, which from a productization standpoint means that Micron can now also produce 2TB chip packages by stacking 16 of their 232L dies. This is good news for SSD capacities, which at the high-end are often limited by the number of packages that can be placed. Though it does mean that there’s a potential loss of performance at lower capacities due to a decrease parallelism from implementing fewer packages.

At the same time, Micron has also been working on the size of their chip packaging, and as a result while the larger capacity means that their die size has increased on a generational basis (we estimate ~70.1mm2 given Micron’s density figures), they’ve still shrunk their chip packaging by 28%. As a result, a single chip package is down from 12mm x 18mm (216mm2) to 11.5mm x 13.5mm (~155mm2). So for Micron’s downstream customers, the combination of the greater capacity and physically smaller packages for Micron’s NAND means that device manufacturers can cut down on the amount of space they allocate to NAND packages, or go the other direction and try to cram in even more packages into a similar amount of space.

Besides density improvements, the latest generation of Micron’s NAND is also allowing the company to upgrade their hardware to take advantage of newer I/O technologies, as well as to implement their own improvements to increase transfer speeds. The big news here is that Micron has increased the number of planes within their NAND die from 4 to 6, further improving the parallelism available within each die.  Quad (four) plane designs became common in the previous generation of NAND, and as the density of NAND grows, so too are the number of planes in order for transfer rates to keep up with these greater densities. Micron has confirmed that the planes in 232L NAND offer independent reads, though they aren’t being quite as explicit on what kind of wordline dependencies remain for writes.

This increase in parallelism, along with improved internal transfer rates, has allowed Micron to significantly improve their per-die read and write speeds. According to the company, read speeds have improved by over 75% over their 176L generation NAND, and meanwhile write speeds have outright doubled.

Coupled with this, Micron has also implemented the latest generation of ONFi on their peripheral logic. Finalized in 2021 and now rolling out in the first NAND products, ONFi increases controller-NAND transfer rates by 50%, bringing it to 2400MT/second. ONFi 5.0 also introduced a new NV-LPDDR4 signaling method, which is available with the same 2400MT/s rate but, as it’s based on LPDDR technology, consumes less power. According to Micron, they’re seeing per-bit energy transfer savings of over 30%, which makes for a significant reduction in energy consumption. Though as always with these sorts of comparisons, it’s worth noting that the bandwidth gains exceed the energy savings (50% vs. 30%), so our expectation is that overall energy consumption is going to go up for high-performance products that run at the fastest speeds supported by Micron’s 232L NAND.

As for productization, Micron is pitching 232L NAND as a full stack replacement for 176L NAND – meaning that Micron considers it suitable for everything from mobile and IoT to clients and data center products. To that end, the company is already making initial shipments to their customers, including their own Crucial subsidiary. As with past generations of Micron NAND, starting early with Crucial allows the company to get some hands-on experience in developing full-featured products with their new NAND before they roll it into their own enterprise equipment. Interestingly, however, Micron isn’t announcing any new Crucial products right now, which strongly implies that Crucial is going to begin implementing the new NAND in existing products. If that’s the case, then Crucial customers will want to pay attention to what’s going on and what revision of a drive they’re buying, as the larger 1Tb die could have performance implications for products originally designed around 512Gbit dies.

Wrapping things up, today’s announcement should be the tip of the iceberg for Micron’s 232L shipments. With volume ramping expected to continue through this end of this calendar year, Micron’s plans call for the company to significantly increase the amount of next-generation NAND they’re shipping, going well beyond these initial volumes. Ultimately, this means that products equipped with 232L NAND are going to be relatively sparse for this year, and will pick up in 2023 following the volume ramp. So while Micron’s 232L NAND is indeed shipping, from a consumer standpoint we’re likely still several months off (or more) from seeing it becoming a common fixture in SSDs and other products.

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TSMC’s revenue this year is going to set an all-time record for the company, thanks to high demand for chips as well as increased prices that its customers are willing to pay for its services. While the company admits that demand for chips aimed at consumer devices is slowing, demand for 5G, AI, HPC, and automotive chips remains steady. In fact, TSMC’s main problem at present is getting more fab equipment, as ASML and other tool firms and reporting that demand for semiconductor production tools significantly exceeds supply.

Last week TSMC posted its financial results for the second quarter of 2022. The company’s revenue hit a record $18.2 billion, which was a year-over-year increase of 43.5%. The company revealed that while its sales were up 55% and 65.3% in April and May (respectively), its revenue in June was ‘only’ up 18.5% YoY, which indicates a slowdown in sales growth.

Demand for Client Devices Slowing

“Due to the softening device momentum in smartphone, PC and consumer end market segments, we observe the supply chain is already taking action and expect inventory level to reduce throughout the second half 2022,” said C.C. Wei, chief executive of TSMC, at the company’s earnings conference call.

While we can only speculate on this, it looks like some of TSMC’s customers reduced their orders for client-oriented chips after Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine in late February. TSMC charges/recognizes revenue when it delivers chips/wafers to a client.

Production cycle for chips on modern process technologies is well over 60 days depending on complexity and the number of layers: N16 is ~60 days, N7 is 90+ days, N5 is probably well over 100 days. These nodes account for 65% of TSMC’s revenue. So, if clients started to wind down orders in March and April as they anticipated increasing inflation and uncertainty among the end user, the effect will be seen in June, which is what can be observed in TSMC’s reports.

TSMC admits that demand for client-oriented chips is softening, but demand for chips designed to support 5G, AI, and HPC applications still exceeds the company’s abilities to supply.

“While we observe softness in consumer end market segments, other end market segments such as data center and automotive-related remain steady,” said Wei. “We are able to reallocate our capacity to support these areas. Despite the ongoing inventory correction, our customers’ demand continues to exceed our ability to supply. We expect our capacity to remain tight throughout 2022 and our full year growth to be mid-30% in U.S. dollar terms.”

Advanced Nodes to Remain Growth Drivers, Expansions Getting Tougher

Over half of TSMC’s revenue (51%) comes from chips made using its advanced fabrication technologies (N7 and thinner nodes), which is not particularly surprising as TSMC is one of the only two contract foundries that offer such sophisticated manufacturing processes to clients.

These technologies will be among TSMC’s main growth drivers in the coming years, especially as more customers adopt N7 and more advanced technologies. But more N7/N6 and N5/N4 orders mean that TSMC will need to build more capacity for these nodes, as well as more capacity for N3 and subsequent nodes, which is why the company estimated that its CapEx this year would reach $40 billion – $44 billion.

“With the successful ramp of N5, N4P, N4X, and the upcoming ramp-up of N3, we will expand our customer product portfolio and increase our addressable market,” said the head of TSMC. “The macroeconomic uncertainty may persist into 2023, our technology leadership will continue to advance and support our growth. […] We believe the fundamental structural growth trajectory in the long-term semiconductor demand remains firmly in place. “

The world’s No. 1 contract maker of semiconductors also urges customers to migrate from older nodes to 28nm and specialty technologies as this will ensure capacity availability (as TSMC plans to expand capacity for 28 nm and specialty nodes by 50% by 2025) and denser designs potentially with more features.

Building additional leading-edge, 28 nm, and specialty capacities not only requires massive investments, but TSMC needs to procure additional semiconductor production tools. Whether TSMC is building capacities for its brand-new N3 node or 28nm/specialty technologies, it should be noted that the company needs all kinds of lithography machines for them. An N3-capable fab needs dry litho tools, immersion litho scanners, and EUV-capable equipment. Without required number of dry and immersion scanners, an advanced EUV machine on its own will be useless. Meanwhile, lithography tools are not the only machinery that a fab needs.

Apparently, demand for fab equipment is so high that TSMC will not be able to spend its CapEx budget this year, and some purchases related to advanced (N7 and thinner) and mature nodes will be delayed into 2023. As a result, TSMC’s CapEx this year will be at a lower end of the company’s prediction (around $40 billion) not because it does not want to invest, but because it cannot invest in tools that are not available.

“Our suppliers have been facing greater challenges in their supply chains, which are extending tool delivery lead times for both advanced and mature nodes,” said Wei. “As a result, we expect some of our CapEx this year to be pushed out into 2023.”

ASML Confirms Record Quarterly Bookings

Meanwhile, ASML, the world’s largest producer of lithography tools, this week posted its Q2 2022 revenue of €5.431 billion, a 53% increase year-over-year. During the second quarter, the company supplied (recognized revenue) a total of 91 new lithography systems (up from 59 in Q2 2021), with 12 of those being EUV systems (up from 3 in Q2 2021). 

What is perhaps more important is that ASML’s net bookings for new systems totaled €8.461 billion during the quarter, so the company’s bookings are higher than its quarterly sales. Meanwhile, ASML’s backlog now totals €33 billion and spans multiple years to come, which essentially is a yet another confirmation that it is extremely hard for companies like TSMC to get new tools.

The backlog for DUV machines is now at around 600 units and product order lead time for a new DUV scanner is now about two years. The backlog for EUV tools is well over 100 machines. Meanwhile, ASML says that PO lead time metrics is not exactly relevant since it faces supply chain and own production capacity issues, which means that its partners have to build additional capacity and ASML has to build additional capacity (which takes time) and only then it will be able to supply the tools ordered recently.

For the whole year 2022, ASML expects to ship 55 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography scanners, but recognize revenue of 40 EUV systems valued at €6.40 billion (€160/$140 million per machine) because 15 EUV machines will be so-called fast shipments — a shipment process that skips some of the testing at ASML’s factory and then final testing and formal acceptance are performed at the customer site (which is why revenue acceptance gets deferred). The company also intends to supply 240 deep ultraviolet (DUV) litho tools this year. ASML expects its production capacity to total 60 EUV scanners and 375+ DUV tools in 2023.

Summary

While demand for chips aimed at client/consumer devices is getting softer due to rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the global megatrends like 5G, AI, HPC, and autonomous vehicles are still there and these require loads of advanced system-on-chips, specialty processors, and not-so-advanced things like sensors. Therefore, TSMC is confident of strong demand for chips in the coming years.

But there is a problem with meeting that demand as TSMC is not the only company that is expanding its manufacturing capacity. ASML’s backlog now includes over 100 EUV scanners and around 600 DUV scanners — it will take years for the company to ship these machines. As a result, TSMC has problems with obtaining tools it needs to build additional capacity it needs. It is unclear whether the company has enough capacity to meet all of the potential demand from its largest customers on N3, N4, N5 nodes (Apple, MediaTek, AMD, NVIDIA, etc.), but, ultimately, tool shortages will affect all of its process technologies.

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